Why Matt Brown Believes Ilia Topuria is the Top Contender for Islam Makhachev’s Title

UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev has yet to learn who his next opponent will be, as four fighters—Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and featherweight champion Ilia Topuria—are all pushing for a shot at his title. While the UFC has not finalized its decision, former fighter Matt Brown argues that one contender stands out due to the potential scale of the matchup.

“I give it to Ilia,” Brown said on The Fighter vs. The Writer. “We’ve talked about it, Islam, he’ll give resistance to that. He’ll try for that not to be the fight. Rightfully enough, I think he should but I don’t feel like anybody else has done anything significant to be just clear. That’s why there’s four of them [vying for a title shot].

“No one has stuck out so much that you’re like OK, this guy should get the fight. I say give the opportunity to Ilia. Go see if it works for him. If it does, then you have an even more ginormous star in Ilia.”

Makhachev has voiced reluctance to face Topuria, citing his past fight against featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski and the subsequent criticism that he was merely overpowering smaller fighters. He has suggested Topuria should first prove himself at lightweight rather than jumping straight into a title fight. Brown acknowledges Makhachev’s hesitation but believes the UFC prioritizes the financial allure of the matchup.

Brown also notes that the other contenders will remain relevant, while a loss for Topuria elsewhere could derail the hype around a Makhachev showdown. “Those guys aren’t going anywhere,” Brown said about Tsarukyan, Oliveira, and Gaethje. “They’ll still be around and be able to get title fights later. In the meantime, give the opportunity to Ilia to become — I don’t know if I’d say biggest star in the sport — but he’d be right up there if he beats Islam. Beating [Alexander] Volkanovski, [Max] Holloway and Islam, I mean he’s in the greatest ever discussion at that point.”

Topuria’s case is bolstered by recent events, particularly after Tsarukyan withdrew from a planned January bout with Makhachev due to a back injury, prompting UFC CEO Dana White to require him to secure another win first. Oliveira, meanwhile, dominated Michael Chandler in his latest fight but carries prior defeats to both Tsarukyan and Makhachev. Gaethje rebounded with a win over Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313, following a brutal knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 a year ago.

Brown recognizes the frustration the other fighters might feel if Topuria jumps the line but advises Oliveira and Gaethje to stay active while suggesting Tsarukyan could wait or serve as a backup. “Look if I’m the UFC, I would say Arman doesn’t necessarily need to fight in the meantime,” Brown said. “Like Arman, you’re the next guy. You get to fight the winner of Ilia and Islam. But we put Ilia and Islam together, if Islam wins it’s not going to diminish him in anyway obviously on a win but if Ilia wins there’s so much upside there. We have such a big star now, so much upside, such a great champion.

“Arman just wait your turn, we’ll keep you in the back, and if one of these guys gets hurt, you can be the guy. I know Arman’s already been out for a while, but your back got injured, keep healing that thing up and wait for your opportunity. I don’t think necessarily Arman needs to fight another guy in the meantime, and I know it’s going to keep him on the sidelines longer than he wants to, longer than it’s necessary, but sometimes that’s just the way of the world.”

Beyond the business aspect, Brown believes Topuria’s style could pose a unique threat to Makhachev, unlike the other contenders. Though moving up from featherweight, Topuria’s knockout power offers a real chance to upset the champion. “Here’s the thing: Arman stylistically, he’s a wrestler. So he’s probably not going to beat Islam in the wrestling,” Brown explained. “I don’t think his standup is good enough to beat Islam in the standup. Ilia, of course, is going to be overmatched in the wrestling, but he does at least have the standup, the knockout power where if Islam slips, makes a mistake, he’s got that chance to pull it off. If Islam mentally gets overconfident and wants to stand too long, there’s a clear path to victory for Ilia whereas Arman is really like a Islam light.

“We kind of assume they’re going to wrestle a lot together and thinking that he’s going to beat Islam with his wrestling is more unlikely than Ilia beating Islam with standup. With that said, it’s also more likely that Islam goes in and takes down Ilia and beats the shit out of him on the ground or submits him. A little bit torn on that to be honest.”

Ultimately, Brown argues that Topuria’s blend of marketability and the potential to deliver a stunning knockout makes him the prime candidate. “Ilia does have sort of the ‘X factor’ that Arman doesn’t have,” Brown said. “That’s where I would give him a better shot.”